NBA 3-2-1 Lottery Simulator 3-YEAR PROJECTION

Step-by-step simulation of three consecutive drafts (2027 → 2028 → 2029) under the new lottery rules. Each year unfolds in three phases — Standings → Pre-Lottery → Results — and own-pick restrictions carry forward between years. 2025-26 final standings are the starting point; records are computed internally but only standings positions are shown.

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Prior Draft History — real top-5 results from before the sim starts

The new rules check the prior 2 drafts for #1 and top-5 restrictions. Pre-filled with the 2025 draft and 2026 lottery results so 2027's sim applies restrictions correctly.

First team in each list is treated as #1 of that draft. Clear both fields to skip prior history. The teams listed are the originating teams (where the pick came from), not the team that made the selection.

Ready to simulate

Click Start Simulation to project 2027, 2028, and 2029 drafts. The 2027 standings will reveal first; each subsequent phase unlocks when you advance.

How the new system works

Ball allocation (16 lottery teams, 37 total balls)

  • 10 non-playoff, non-play-in teams: 3 balls each
  • 3 worst overall records ("relegated"): −1 ball, guaranteed pick floor of #12
  • #9 and #10 play-in seeds (both confs, 4 teams): 2 balls each
  • #7 vs #8 play-in game losers (both confs, 2 teams): 1 ball each

Floors

  • Relegated teams cannot pick lower than #12
  • All other lottery teams cannot pick lower than #16

Own-pick restrictions (carried between years in this sim)

  • A team's own pick cannot be #1 in two consecutive drafts
  • A team's own pick cannot be top-5 in three consecutive drafts
  • Restrictions follow the originating team — even if the pick has been traded

Modeling choices

  • Records project year-over-year as a Markov chain: each season adds normal noise from the previous year's projected record
  • Records are computed but not displayed — only standings positions are shown
  • Lottery draws use weighted sampling without replacement (mathematically equivalent to the ball-combination procedure)
  • 7v8 play-in game outcome: the lower-record team is treated as the loser (random tiebreak among same-record teams)
  • Restrictions carry between years automatically — no manual entry needed